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Get strapped in for Trump rollercoaster

  • Date: Monday 14th November 2016
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Tycoon Donald Trump shook the world last week by overcoming favourite Hillary Clinton to become the 45TH US President – and the reverberations are still being firmly felt here in Scotland.

Indeed, aside from what it could mean for his golfing interests at Turnberry and Aberdeen, Trump’s election victory could have significant wider economic effects for Scots.

He’s certainly not been shy in talking about his ability to turn around America’s fortunes and make it ‘great again’ – and the former Apprentice star claims that he will boost US growth enormously.

However, outside of the EU, the US is the UK's biggest export market, with a fifth of UK goods and services sent to the world's biggest economy, equivalent to 6pc of UK gross domestic product. In other words, our own economic fortunes are closely aligned to those of our Stateside cousins – if they take a hit, then so do we.

Arguably, we have bigger fish to fry in the short-term. While a plunge in the value of the pound following the Brexit vote has helped to improve Britain's competitiveness, it has also raised concerns about what our future trade relationships with EU and other economies may be.

The UK’s exit from Europe is now imminent, leaving us somewhat isolated – therefore the US election result now makes it more essential than ever for the British government to pull together regarding Brexit.

So, what does this all mean for Scotland? Our traditional annual influx of US tourists should remain unchanged – we will of course continue to welcome them in our traditionally warm manner – but then a struggling Stateside economy could see Americans begin to opt for cheaper staycation options.

You may recall that First Minister Nicola Sturgeon stripped Trump of his GlobalScot position last year after some of his more controversial comments led to calls for a national boycott of his Scottish golf resorts.

The Scottish Government said he was no longer fit to be a business ambassador for Scotland and that his membership had been withdrawn with immediate effect.

Interestingly, in the lead-up to the election, Nicola Sturgeon openly threw her support behind Hillary Clinton. Although she has since congratulated Donald Trump, MSP Jackson Carlaw spoke of his fears that Scotland could miss out on the benefits of a possible UK-US trade deal post-Brexit because of Sturgeon’s criticism of the Republican tycoon.

Nevertheless, it should be kept in mind that, during Trump’s election campaign, he did say that he would prioritise a new trading relationship between the UK and US.

The next president has of course invested millions into his Scottish golf interests with £200million alone being pumped into Turnberry.

However, his promises have not always been fulfilled, particularly at Balmedie in Aberdeenshire. Over the past decade, he has pledged the development of two golf courses, a 450-room luxury hotel and spa, a conference centre, employee housing, a research centre and a holiday community with hundreds of villas, condos and homes, not to mention the creation of 6,000 jobs.

Looking at the site today, the land contains one golf course, clubhouse with a restaurant, and 19 rooms for rent in a renovated mansion, amounting to just 150 jobs at present.

In April of this year, Trump spoke of how his experiences in Scotland would help him take the White House, and he has clear affection for our country with his mother being of Scots birth. Let’s just hope that now he’s won, he will return to boost the Balmedie resort as promised – though the smart money would be on him likely being very busy Stateside for the foreseeable future.

Fundamentally, we will remain uncertain of what this result will mean for America and Scotland until Trump formally takes the reins in January.

In the meantime, we should look to get our own house firmly in order so that we are as insulated as possible from the effects of what could be just around the corner.

 

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