Looking back over the past year, Scottish business has been on a bit of a roller-coaster bobbing up and down throughout the year – and we could really do with a more predictable ride amid sustained Brexit and indyref2 uncertainty.

Encouragingly then, it looks like we’re not all going to be screaming our way into a loop the loop any time soon and feeling a bit queasy afterwards.

Following a seven per cent increase in business failures, an eight per cent rise in liquidations and three per cent decrease in administrations over the course of the year, a new report suggests that the start of 2017 is looking up.

Despite all the ups and downs in 2016, Scottish businesses have had a modest start to 2017, with the financial and business services sector leading the way and construction companies falling a little behind.

The findings, contained within the latest Royal Bank of Scotland Business Monitor, were conducted by the Fraser of Allander Institute.

The survey of more than 400 Scottish businesses reveals that a third (34 per cent) reported an increase in the total volume of business during the last quarter, compared to 31 per cent that witnessed a fall in activity. The balance of three per cent is a drop of eight points since the final quarter of 2016.

The performance of the financial and business services sector was strongest, with a net 14 per cent reporting an increase in total business volumes. Transport and communications also enjoyed a strong performance with a net 9.5 per cent enjoying an increase. However, a net 16 per cent of construction companies reported a fall in business volumes.

It’s great to see that new businesses continued on the upward trend first recorded in the second half of 2016. It’s now been reported that one in three (33 per cent) believe that the volume of new business rose in the three months to February, compared to one in four (24 per cent) who stated it fell. The balance of ten per cent is an improvement of three points on Q4 2016 and six points on Q3 2016.

The volume of repeat business in Scotland is also up in the last quarter, with one in five businesses (21 per cent) reporting an increase, and 18 per cent reporting a fall.

Having said all of that, inflationary pressures have mounted and look set to build further with 56 per cent of Scottish business expecting costs to increase in the next six months, with those in the distribution sector feeling the most strain. Such pressures are continuing to impact upon costs for Scottish business, with 59 per cent of all businesses stating that costs rose over the last quarter and less than one in 12 reported a fall. Cost pressures were most acute in distribution, where a net 78 per cent reported a rise in costs, followed by tourism at 75 per cent and transport and communication at 48 per cent.

Although growth amongst Scottish business was moderate in the three months leading up to February, firms do expect growth in 2017 to be slightly more positive than last year. Of course, there is a growing amount of uncertainty in the Scottish business sector caused by the triggering of Article 50 and the prospect of a second independence referendum will act as a pushback for many businesses.

And with reports of the Scottish economic output decreasing by 0.2 per cent in the final quarter of last year, combined with the weaker pound, National Living Wage and increase in energy prices, will the uncertainty continue to rise for Scottish Businesses? Or will they continue to ride the up and down roller-coaster?

The Q2 report will reveal all, so strap yourselves in.

 

SIDE

Following on from the much-anticipated T2 Trainspotting, filming for Avengers: Infinity War has hit the streets of Edinburgh in earnest – and it’s literally shaken up the capital.

There’s been a fantastic buzz in the city as film fans gather to catch a glimpse of its famous cast, witness the explosions on the Royal Mile, and ‘Marvel’ at the huge green screen in Waverley station.

Big blockbuster films like these are so important to our economy, establishing Scotland’s epic scenery as the perfect movie location and providing a boost to our thriving tourism sector.

There’s been an influx of fantastic films and TV programmes filmed in Scotland over the past few years - Outlander, Skyfall and World War Z to name but a few.

The Avengers film itself is expected to generate more than £10million for Edinburgh with scenes also set to be shot in Glasgow and the Highlands.

And Scotland’s movie industry received further tremendous news this week when the Scottish Government granted planning in principle for a purpose-built film studio on the outskirts of Edinburgh.

The project could create 1,600 jobs and be operational as early as the end of next year.

Almost a year ago, whilst filming for T2 took place, I discussed what a travesty it was that there were reports Scotland was often overlooked for filming in favour of other countries including Ireland and Wales.

Creative Scotland, as well as senior figures in the Scottish film industry, cited a lack of funding, talent drain and a shortage of suitable facilities, as contributing factors.

I am delighted to see signs that the industry is beginning to flourish with real investment to establish Scotland as a serious contender as backdrop for tomorrow’s Hollywood blockbusters.

 

LAUGH

Mackies of Scotland has revealed that Scots buy almost as much ice cream in winter as they do in the summer – which is just as well considering we never get much of a summer!

Sales between October 2016 and March 2017 accounted for 47 per cent of the company’s total ice cream sales for the year.

And Mackie’s claim was further supported by a separate survey it conducted in which 57 per cent of respondents said they ate the same amount of ice cream all year round.

It’s fantastic to hear that our unpredictable Scottish weather doesn’t put many people off tucking into a bowl of ice cream - and even better to hear of a home grown business achieving great sales.

 

WEEP

A huge talking point among my friends and colleagues last week was the lady in Dundee who was ordered to pay over £24,000 worth of parking tickets.

She ignored more than 200 penalty notices as she believed they weren’t enforceable. However, Vehicle Control Services took her to court and she has now been ordered to pay.

It has certainly put the fear into many people who have previously ignored a parking fine, believing that

Although it’s an extreme case – thought to be the highest value parking charge case ever awarded in the United Kingdom – it definitely sets a precedent and may make people think twice about ignoring parking conditions in future.

Unfortunately for us, it will also encourage parking firms to pursue more cases.