My Column

We're still walking a financial tightrope

  • Date: Monday 1st February 2010
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It's great that the UK economy has started a new chapter, but the legacy of the recession means we'll only see real growth if we learn from our mistakes.

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, we had a misguided relationship with debt and money - from personal to national.

It'd be nice to think we can enter the 'Oneders' with a fresh approach.

To ensure we grow as an economy, people at all levels need to stay true to a few valuable lessons.

The UK may have notched 0.3-0.4 per cent growth but Scotland is still in the red so there is a very definite tightrope to walk to ensure a quick and effective escape from recession.

If you've ever lost your purse or wallet you'll know that you're forced to take a small amount of money and make it last.

You don't treat yourself for a few days.

But when you get it back you'll probably go on a bit of a spending spree to reward yourself for living so frugally.

It's like coming out of a recession - the natural reaction may be to act like that, but we need to remember how well we made money last before.

People in a recession have a different mentality to those in a strong economy - so it's a balancing act to turn shaky growth into progress.

We need to spend money to massage the economy and get it moving again but it was our culture of debt and borrowing which caused the banking sector bubble that would later burst.

We can't afford to throw caution to the wind yet.

One expert said that it's "evens" whether Scotland's economy will emerge from recession in the next three months. We need to hoist ourselves out of the red for the foreseeable future but we can't do that artificially - it has to be real money.

The minute growth reported a week ago might signify a change in the tide, but it took six years from the end of the recession in the 1990s for long-term unemployment to return to pre-recession levels.

Scotland is not out of the woods and last week's headlines were a stark reminder of that. Pharmaceutical firm AstraZeneca announced plans to cut jobs in Scotland and contractor Babcock Rail plans to axe 300 jobs in Scotland and the north of England.

Recent reports show farm income in Scotland has dropped by £20million and Homecoming Scotland's flagship event The Gathering lost £600,000 last year and is in administration.

We need to get the money flowing again carefully for the sake of essential industries such as construction, leisure, hospitality, retail, and the local economy.

But we need to be clever otherwise the recession hangover could last much longer.

As it stands, service industries are keeping belts tight because employment rates remain lower than usual and people's perceptions - and confusion - about the economy may stifle expenditure.

It will be a long time before we see that growth on the street and before boarded-up shops are turned round because Scotland's recession was deeper than Britain's and because we over-rely on the cash-strapped public sector.

Spending on entrepreneurialism and funding local business may also take a hit after the Election as income tax and national insurance join VAT in going up.

We need to start moving money but we need to do it carefully because we're still on a fragile precipice.

There's no way we can sustain the debt obsession from ten years ago and the economy is going to change - so play safe-ish while it does.

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