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Nicola Sturgeon needs trade deals to add up.

  • Date: Monday 30th January 2017
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As the Government publishes the 137-word Brexit Bill that will give Theresa May the power to trigger Article 50, the spotlight has been shone on Scotland’s UK and international export market.

Our trade with the rest of the UK continues to be worth four times more than our exports to the EU, according to Scottish government figures –and they place the current political machinations in a stark light indeed.

The latest Export Statistics Scotland data showed the country sold £49.8billion to the rest of the UK in 2015 - £2.1billion more than the previous year and evidently an incredible performance.

International exports, excluding oil and gas, rose from £27.7billion in 2014 to £28.7billion in 2015, with a rise of £520million in the EU to a total of £12.3billion. Unsurprisingly, the food and drink sector was our largest industry for exports at £4.8billion, with dependable whisky sales responsible for the majority (£3.8billion). 

Against this backdrop, it’s interesting to see that exports to the EU have been rising far less quickly than internal exports with the rest of the UK - and less quickly than exports globally.

The US continues to be Scotland’s top trading partner outside of the EU, and within the EU, the Netherlands was again the largest market.

This would appear to put a significant dent in the SNP’s claim that Scotland would be better off independent than being forced out of the European single market by Brexit. Scottish sales of goods and services to England, Wales and Northern Ireland equated to almost £49.8billion in 2015 – £37.5billion more than the £12.3billion of exports to all the other 27 other EU countries.

In other words, such figures firmly indicate that the UK single market is four times more important to Scottish jobs and the economy than the EU single market and that the UK is the vital union for Scotland. It also raises the importance of maintaining the UK market and preventing any new barriers to doing business across the UK as we leave the EU.

Nicola Sturgeon said on her personal Twitter account that it was false to suggest that an independent Scotland would not trade with the rest of the UK, but she has to provide robust assurances to our business community on how that new relationship will work.

You have to wonder if all of this talk of a second independence referendum is creating damaging uncertainty for the Scottish economy throughout the rest of the UK. Other politicians are claiming that a second referendum would be a reckless gamble by attempting to remove Scotland from the UK single market.

Of course, that remains to be seen, but clearly we could do without further uncertainty at this crucial juncture.

As Theresa May pledges to renew the special relationship with the US for this new age, Scottish government figures revealed that the US bought goods and services worth £4.6billion in 2015 -  more than any single EU country– a figure that will become increasingly relevant after the commencement of UK-US trade talks with President Trump.

The Article 50 bill can be formally triggered by the end of March if it is not blocked by MPs. However, with the SNP planning to put forward 60 “serious and substantive” amendments to the Brexit bill, only time will tell what the future holds for Scotland’s trade links.

 

SIDE

I was disappointed to read that the UK Government will be closing a further 16 Jobcentres in Scotland.

This announcement follows on from news in December that half of Glasgow’s 16 Jobcentres were set to shut.

The UK Employment Minister, Damian Hinds, has said that the welfare state needs to keep up with developments in technology and that an increasing number of people are accessing their benefits through the internet which has resulted in Jobcentres being under used.

While I agree with the Minister that it’s very important to keep up-to-date with user trends and technology that can make the welfare state operate more efficiently, I do worry that this will come at the expense of the poorest in society, who don’t have access to the internet.

Last year, I discussed a fantastic pilot scheme by Glasgow Housing Association which supplied free Wi-Fi and access to laptops and tablet devices to 70 tenants in a block of its high rise flats in the Knightswood area of Glasgow.

The project revealed just how important the internet is when searching for a job. A third of tenants secured job interviews after answering online job adverts with one in ten finding employment.

I fear that unless more forward-thinking organisations like Glasgow Housing Association trial initiatives to provide free internet access, or job seekers are allowed more than the standard hour’s access to library computers, some sections of society will continue to really struggle to find employment without their trusty local Jobcentre.

 

WEEP

Doom and gloom in Scottish banking continued into last week with news that RBS is set to report a loss for the ninth year in a row.

The loss for 2016 is in part due to the bank setting aside a further £3.1billion to cover the cost of fines by the US Department of Justice which have amounted to £6.7billion in total.

This is further bad news for the industry which is still reeling from Airdire Savings Bank announcing its closure, not to mention The Clydesdale and Yorkshire Banking Group revealing it will be closing 79 branches.

A senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown said that although progress is slow, RBS is heading in the right direction. Here’s hoping we’ll start to hear more good news from the bank in the future.

 

LAUGH

It made me smile to see that Loganair has been awarded a four year contract to operate the shortest flight in the world.

The news will mean that the airline operator will have flown the route between Westray and Papa Westray in the Orkney Islands – a journey that takes just two minutes – for more than 50 years.

The service plays an important role in the remote community and Loganair has done a fantastic job of making locals feel invested in the flights - even launching a competition for school children to redesign the tail fins of its two aircraft that fly the route.

It’ll be great to see the pastel artwork of a sunset and Orcadian skyline featuring two puffins will continue to fly proudly over the islands for at least another four years.

 

 

 

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